NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast predicts a below-average number of storms
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and as coastal residents watch the forecast and wait to see what nature has in store, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is releasing its outlook for the months ahead.
NOAA is predicting a below-average season this year, with eight to 14 named storms. Of them, three to six are expected to become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher, agency officials announced.
They stressed that a below-average forecast should not keep people in hurricane-prone areas from taking it seriously and getting prepared.
“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” said NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs. “We have had Category 5 storms make landfall in the past during below average seasons.”
Jacobs and National Weather Service director Ken Graham praised technological advancements that, they said, will take storm preparedness to the next level.
“We’ve never been as prepared for hurricane season as we are now,” said Graham. NOAA encompasses the Weather Service, which directly handles hurricane forecasts.
NOAA estimates there’s currently a 55% chance that activity during hurricane season will be below-normal, a 35% chance it will be near-normal, and a 10% chance it will be above-normal.
